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US Open 2009 – Serena Williams vs Flavia Pennetta

Serena will have to be at the top of her game to win this match.

With all of the top seeds that have been falling left and right on the women’s draw it’s time to look at who the favorites are. Betting trends put Serena Williams, correctly, as the favorite followed by Kim Clijsters (correctly), but after that the list is all wrong. Here are the favorites in terms of odds (subject to change).

1. Serena Williams, Paddy Power -120 (5/6).
2. Kim Clijsters, Victor Chandler +600 (6/1).
3. Svetlana Kuznetsova, Paddy Power +800 (8/1).
4. Caroline Wozniacki, Victor Chandler +1200 (12/1).
5. Flavia Pennetta, Betfred +2000 (20/1).

And here are how the favorites should look, with the top 3 players all on the same side of the draw:

1. Serena Williams
2. Kim Clijsters
3. Flavia Pennetta
4. Caroline Wozniacki
5. Svetlana Kuznetsova

Post-Wimbledon Flavia Pennetta has been tough as hell to play against as she has surged into the WTA top 10. At one point she had a 15 match winning streak going that included two titles and wins over 3 top 10 players, including Venus Williams.

In her round of 16 match at Flushing Meadows versus Vera Zvonareva, Pennetta lost the first set but then she came back to win in 3 sets 3-6, 7-6, 6-0 and she saved half a dozen match points while doing it.

Pennetta is going to be the underdog facing Serena Williams in the quarters, as Williams is the defending champ, but Pennetta has been so tough lately and so resilient against adversity that you shouldn’t be afraid to bet on the upset if you like the odds that you are given. The fact that Pennetta is +2000 to win the US Open in the futures market while Williams is -120 certainly reflects who will be the more popular pick but if you can find something like +400 (4/1) or better on Pennetta to win, then that will be a valuable enough price to justify the risk on the underdog.


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